TL;DR
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A Kiplinger report outlines homebuilders and home-improvement retailer Home Depot as possible ways to invest in housing-related stocks while the U.S. housing market remains weak. It cites demographic demand and limited construction as longer-term support, but a recovery date is unknown and individual stocks carry risk.
Kiplinger’s report on investing before a housing recovery identifies publicly traded homebuilders and home-improvement retailer Home Depot as possible ways to gain exposure to the housing market, even as home sales and construction remain weak. The report presents the stocks as long-term possibilities, not a prediction that a recovery is near; the timing remains uncertain.
The report describes a housing market constrained by high borrowing costs, construction expenses and limited supply. It says the average U.S. home is 42 years old, compared with 31 years in 2005, while the share of homes built in the preceding decade fell from 18% in 2014 to 13% at the time of publication. It also says housing starts were below their 1970 level despite population growth of 140 million since then. The report attributes part of the shortage to local zoning restrictions.
Against that backdrop, the report points to builders including Lennar, NVR and D.R. Horton. It says Berkshire Hathaway bought an 11% stake in Lennar during the period it describes as beginning in 2025 and extending through September 2026, and acquired Taylor Morrison in July for $8.5 billion, including assumed debt. The source’s date references are not fully clear, so those transactions should be read as reported there rather than as independently verified current developments.
The report also discusses Home Depot, whose shares it says had fallen 29.1% over the previous 12 months as of September 30. It cites the company’s 2,364 stores and a 3.2% dividend yield at that time, arguing that home maintenance demand may continue even if housing transactions remain sluggish. These are figures from the report’s stated measurement period, not current market data.
Housing Exposure Without a Recovery Date
The report matters to investors because a weak housing market can affect more than home prices: it can weigh on builders, retailers and related businesses. Buying shares in these companies offers a way to invest in housing-related activity without purchasing a property, but the companies do not all depend on the same drivers. Builders need buyers and viable construction economics; retailers also rely on maintenance and renovation spending.
The argument for considering these stocks rests on a longer-term view that the United States needs more homes. The report cites the aging housing stock, a lower homeownership rate and constraints on new construction. Those factors may support demand over time, but they do not establish when sales or prices will improve. Investors could face further losses if borrowing costs stay high, the economy weakens, or construction and labor expenses squeeze company results.
The report’s examples also show why a prominent investor’s purchases should not be treated as a guarantee. Berkshire Hathaway has a long investment horizon, and the source itself notes that it has made mistakes. Past performance, reported purchases and dividend yields do not guarantee future returns. Shares can lose value, and housing-related stocks remain exposed to market and company-specific risks.
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Why Housing Supply Has Tightened
The report says several pressures have combined to keep the housing market subdued. Existing homeowners may be reluctant to sell if moving means exchanging a lower-rate mortgage for a new loan at 7% or more. At the same time, it attributes higher building costs to material tariffs and worker shortages, among other pressures. These conditions can limit both the supply of homes and the number of buyers able to afford them.
It also reports that home prices had declined in inflation-adjusted terms for 13 consecutive months at the time covered. Over the five years ending on the report’s stated September 30 date, the S&P Select Industry Homebuilders Index returned an annual average of 7.3%, versus 13.8% for the S&P 500; over the prior 12 months, the builders index trailed the broader index by 28.1 percentage points. The figures describe a specific period and do not predict future performance.
The report’s longer-term case includes possible policy changes, such as rules allowing smaller lots and proposed home-buying tax credits. It also cites Goldman Sachs figures showing home-building productivity declining an average of 0.6% annually since 1965, while productivity across the economy rose 1.6% annually. These points frame the author’s view that construction could improve, but no policy outcome or productivity gain is assured.
“I can’t be sure when Americans will get back to buying homes, so these are indeed stocks for the long run.”
— Kiplinger report
Recovery Timing and Stock Risks
No recovery date is established in the source. It does not provide a forecast for mortgage rates, home sales, home prices or housing starts, and it does not show whether the policy proposals it mentions will become law. The report’s market statistics are tied to a September 30 date, but the year is not consistently specified in the supplied material, limiting how confidently they can be treated as current.
The supplied report also includes a section heading for real estate funds but gives no fund names, performance data or selection criteria. It therefore does not support a specific conclusion about which real estate fund, if any, may suit an investor. Individual company valuations and dividends can change, and the risks differ across builders and retailers. Housing-related investments are volatile and can result in loss of principal.
Signals Investors Can Track
The report does not identify a scheduled event that would confirm a housing rebound. Investors following the outlook can watch for changes in mortgage rates, home sales, housing starts and inflation-adjusted prices, alongside builders’ costs and company results. Those indicators may show whether affordability and construction conditions are improving, but they cannot guarantee a market turn.
Policy developments could also affect supply if proposals to allow smaller lots or provide home-buying tax credits advance. Until there is clearer evidence of improved demand and building activity, the report’s central point remains that these are long-horizon investment ideas with uncertain timing. Investors should account for their own risk tolerance and financial goals; this is reporting, not individualized financial advice.
Key Questions
Which housing-related stocks does the report discuss?
It discusses homebuilders Lennar, NVR, D.R. Horton and Taylor Morrison, as well as home-improvement retailer Home Depot. The report does not establish that any one stock is suitable for every investor.
Does the report say the housing market is about to recover?
No. The author says the timing of renewed home buying is uncertain and frames the stocks as long-term investments. The report’s expectation that homebuilding will revive is an assessment, not a dated forecast.
Why does the report see a longer-term need for more homes?
It points to an aging housing stock, a smaller share of recently built homes and housing starts below their 1970 level despite population growth. It also cites zoning restrictions and construction constraints as barriers to adding supply.
Are real estate funds covered in the source?
The source includes a heading about real estate funds but supplies no specific funds, data or recommendations under it. The material provided is not enough to compare fund options.
What risks should investors keep in mind?
Housing-related shares can fall if borrowing costs remain high, demand weakens or company costs rise. Market prices, dividends and past performance can change; investors may lose money, and the report does not remove those risks.
Source: kiplinger.com
