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The ECB’s September 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey found that median inflation expectations for the coming year rose to 3.1%, while expectations for three and five years ahead held steady. Respondents also lowered their economic growth outlook and raised their expected unemployment rate, while forecasts for income, spending and home prices increased.
The European Central Bank said on 23 October that consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. Longer-term inflation expectations were unchanged, leaving the survey’s picture mixed as the ECB monitors household views on prices, spending and employment.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in August, the ECB reported. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and expectations five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The central bank also said uncertainty around expected inflation over the coming year increased slightly and remained above its level before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Consumers anticipated nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth also edged higher, to 3.7% from 3.6%; perceived spending growth over the previous year rose to 5.3% from 5.2%. The figures describe survey respondents’ reported expectations, not confirmed future changes in income or spending.
The outlook for economic activity weakened: expected growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. By contrast, respondents expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the next year, compared with 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months were unchanged from July at 4.9%.
Household Signals for Prices and Jobs
The results offer the ECB another monthly measure of how households perceive inflation and the economic outlook. The combination of slightly higher near-term inflation expectations and a weaker growth outlook may be relevant to assessments of demand and price pressures, but the survey alone does not establish how inflation, growth or employment will evolve.
The labour-market figures also show a difference between household groups. Respondents expected unemployment to be 13.6% in 12 months in the bottom income quintile, compared with 9.7% in the top quintile. The ECB said consumers still expected the future unemployment rate to be only slightly above the perceived current rate of 10.6%, which it described as suggesting a broadly stable labour-market outlook.
Differences appeared in housing and credit expectations as well. The lowest-income quintile expected home-price growth of 4.0%, against 3.2% in the highest quintile. Expected mortgage rates were 5.7% for the bottom quintile and 4.4% for the top. The ECB also reported that the net share of households reporting tighter access to credit, and the net share expecting tighter conditions ahead, both increased from August.
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How the ECB Survey Is Compiled
The Consumer Expectations Survey is a monthly online survey of about 19,000 adults in 11 euro-area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB uses its results for policy analysis alongside other data sources. The September fieldwork took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026.
The ECB notes that the survey’s findings do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. Unless stated otherwise, the statistics in the release refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a method that limits the influence of unusually high or low observations. The release also says aggregate results for countries and the euro area are published through the ECB Data Portal and its website.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
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Limits of the September Readout
The survey records consumer perceptions and expectations; it does not confirm future inflation, economic growth, unemployment, house prices or mortgage rates. The ECB cautions that the results are one input to policy analysis and do not represent the views of its governing bodies or staff. The release provides no forecast that the reported expectations will be realised.
The release describes the increase in inflation uncertainty as slight but does not give a numerical measure in the published summary. It also reports tighter credit-access balances compared with August without supplying the underlying percentages in the release text. The causes of the month-to-month shifts, and whether they will persist in later survey waves, are not established by these results.
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October Survey Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October Consumer Expectations Survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will show whether the September changes in near-term inflation expectations, growth outlook, unemployment expectations and credit conditions continued or reversed. The September microdata are available through the survey’s data and methodological information section, allowing analysts to examine results beyond the headline aggregates.
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Key Questions
What did consumers expect inflation to be in September 2026?
Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months were 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August. Expectations three years ahead were 2.9%, and five years ahead were 2.5%, both unchanged.
What changed in the growth and unemployment outlook?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.
Did consumers expect home prices and mortgage rates to rise?
Respondents expected home prices to rise 3.5% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in August. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July.
When will the ECB publish the next survey results?
The ECB scheduled the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026.
Source: primary
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