TL;DR
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The World Gold Council and Boston Consulting Group estimate that digital gold could grow from $45 billion–$55 billion today to $160 billion–$170 billion by 2031. Their projection depends on providers improving trust, regulation, access and redemption options; a slower-adoption scenario puts the market at $70 billion–$80 billion.
The World Gold Council (WGC) and Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimate that the digital gold market could more than triple to $160 billion–$170 billion by 2031, from an estimated $45 billion–$55 billion today, if providers overcome barriers to investor trust and access. The report says digital gold could bring $95 billion in new money into bullion, excluding funds shifted from other gold products.
The report, titled Digital Gold: Unlocking a $700-billion opportunity, describes digital gold as products that let investors own physical bullion through digital tokens or online accounts, while a custodian holds the metal. Its market estimate covers vaulted accounts and digital tokens, but excludes gold-backed exchange-traded funds, leveraged products and gold-backed stablecoins. Vaulted accounts represent 89% of the market, with tokens making up the remainder.
The WGC and BCG base their projections on a survey of more than 12,000 retail investors in 12 countries and interviews with 20 industry experts. They used the findings to build a model covering 96 countries, representing 98% of global investable wealth. Nearly nine in 10 surveyed investors said they would consider digital gold under the right conditions, but the category currently accounts for less than 1% of the physical investment gold market.
The report’s central estimate is conditional, not a guarantee. It puts the market at $70 billion–$80 billion in a bear case if adoption barriers persist, and at $270 billion–$280 billion if changes happen more quickly. The scenarios hold the gold price steady and exclude major hacks, fraud or custody failures.
Trust Could Shape Digital Gold Growth
The projections point to an opportunity to bring new buyers into bullion, rather than simply shift investors between existing gold products. The researchers estimate that about 65% of untapped demand could come from people who have not previously invested in gold. The report’s $95 billion estimate for new money excludes transfers from other gold products, a distinction that matters when judging whether the sector is expanding overall demand.
However, stated interest is not the same as actual adoption. Four in five respondents said they prioritize trust in the provider, and 44% identified a major security breach as the event most likely to undermine their confidence. Clear rules, evidence that products are backed by physical metal and a practical way to claim that metal could affect whether the market approaches the central projection or grows more slowly.
Access may also influence who can participate. The report says adoption is up to seven times higher in markets where digital gold is available through familiar banking, payment or multipurpose apps. It reports awareness at 76% in Indonesia and 71% in India, compared with 19% in Canada. Those figures describe surveyed awareness and adoption patterns; they do not establish that the same growth will occur in every market.
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A Small Market With Wide Scenarios
Digital gold gives customers exposure to bullion through a digital interface while a custodian stores the physical metal. The report’s market estimate focuses on these account and token products, not on the broader range of financial products tied to gold. That scope is important: the projected growth should not be read as an estimate for all gold investment vehicles.
The study also presents a separate $700 billion opportunity. That figure is not the 2031 forecast: it estimates additional demand if all adoption barriers disappeared immediately, using today’s population and wealth. The report’s 2031 scenarios are much lower and vary according to how quickly access, trust and other conditions improve.
The WGC has said it plans to develop Gold as a Service, shared infrastructure intended to help issuers with gold sourcing, custody, compliance and redemption. The council outlined the proposal in March. The report also notes that younger investors may be more familiar with the category: half of respondents aged 25–34 knew about digital gold, compared with 23% of those aged 55 and older.
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Adoption Risks Remain Unresolved
The report’s estimates depend on whether providers can address barriers that currently limit adoption. Survey respondents expressed interest, but the category remains under 1% of the physical investment gold market; the research does not establish how many interested investors will become customers or how quickly that might happen.
Redemption terms also vary. Some products, the report says, allow customers to claim physical metal at only one location worldwide or require holdings equal to a 400-ounce bar. Lower minimums and more delivery locations could make redemption more accessible, but the report does not say which providers will change their terms or on what timetable.
The projections also exclude major security breaches, fraud and custody failures, even though respondents identified a major breach as a significant threat to confidence. The report does not quantify how such an event would change its scenarios. Its figures are estimates, not promises of market growth, and its steady-gold-price assumption means they do not model the effect of changes in bullion prices.
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Providers Face Trust and Access Tests
The next developments to watch are changes in regulation, provider disclosures about physical backing, custody safeguards and the practical terms for redeeming metal. The report identifies these as conditions that could shape investor confidence; it does not specify a shared implementation schedule across the industry.
The WGC’s planned Gold as a Service infrastructure is one proposal to follow. The council says it is intended to support sourcing, custody, compliance and redemption for issuers, but further details on rollout and participating providers were not provided in the source report. Until those plans and provider changes become clearer, the gap between investor interest and actual ownership remains a key measure of whether the projections are taking shape.
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Key Questions
What does the report project for digital gold by 2031?
The WGC and BCG’s central scenario puts the market at $160 billion–$170 billion by 2031, compared with an estimated $45 billion–$55 billion today. The estimate depends on providers addressing barriers to adoption.
What is included in the digital gold market estimate?
The estimate covers vaulted accounts and digital tokens that provide ownership of physical bullion held by a custodian. It excludes gold-backed ETFs, leveraged products and gold-backed stablecoins.
Is the $700 billion figure the forecast for 2031?
No. The $700 billion figure describes estimated additional demand if all adoption barriers disappeared immediately, using today’s population and wealth. The report’s 2031 scenarios range from $70 billion–$80 billion to $270 billion–$280 billion.
What could stop digital gold from reaching the central estimate?
The report identifies provider trust, regulation, security and access to physical redemption as barriers. A major security breach, fraud or custody failure could damage confidence, but the report does not quantify the effect of such events on its projections.
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