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U.S. stocks closed mixed in a quiet Monday session, with the Dow higher and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slightly lower. Investors now await the September CPI report on Wednesday and the first major third-quarter earnings releases, which could influence expectations for inflation, interest rates and corporate growth.
U.S. stocks closed mixed Monday in a quiet session, as investors prepared for September inflation data and the start of third-quarter earnings season. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% to 51,850, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,807 and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.4% to 27,245, according to Kiplinger’s market report.
Trading was subdued ahead of a busier week for economic and corporate updates. The bond market was closed for the Columbus Day and Indigenous Peoples’ Day holidays, and no earnings or economic reports were scheduled for Monday. The market calendar picks up Tuesday, with Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase among the companies set to report results before the market opens.
Salesforce gained 2.1% and helped lift the Dow after BofA Securities analyst Tal Liani raised his rating on the stock to Buy from Underperform and increased his price target to $285 from $160. Salesforce remained down 12% year to date, Kiplinger reported. Liani said in a client note that his prior concern about AI displacing software platforms had eased after conversations with chief information officers and other market participants.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended slightly lower, despite remaining close to records reached the previous week, Kiplinger said. The Dow was about 4.5% below its early-August record. Monday also marked four years since the current bull market began. Raymond James Chief Investment Officer Larry Adam said the S&P 500 had risen roughly 118% on a price-return basis over that period.
Inflation and Earnings Set the Tone
Wednesday’s CPI release could affect market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate decisions. Kiplinger cited Chris Larkin, managing director of Trading and Investing at E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley, who said inflation data could become a near-term source of volatility. A hotter or cooler reading may change how investors assess price pressures and the outlook for borrowing costs, though Monday’s trading alone does not establish how markets will react.
Company results will test growth expectations as well. FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters said current projections call for 30% year-over-year S&P 500 earnings growth in the third quarter. That is a forecast, not a reported result. Actual performance and company guidance may shape views about whether earnings can support the market’s gains into year-end.
The combination matters because inflation readings influence interest-rate expectations, while earnings reports offer evidence about business conditions and profit growth. Investors will receive both kinds of information within days, after Monday’s limited schedule produced little new economic data.
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Four Years Into the Bull Market
Kiplinger reported that the S&P 500’s roughly 118% price gain since the current bull market began is above the historical average of about 90% and ranks third among bull markets since 1945, citing Raymond James’ Adam. He also said the market had set 124 record highs over the period, compared with an average of about 50 in seven earlier bull markets that lasted at least four years.
Adam said volatility over the four years had remained below average and that earnings growth, rather than higher valuation multiples, had driven the market’s return. He cited historical figures showing bull markets have lasted about five and a half years on average. Those past averages describe earlier market cycles; they do not establish how long the current run will last or predict future returns.
Inflation is a nearer-term focus. Kiplinger’s report said August headline inflation had been elevated, with higher gasoline and fuel-oil prices, shelter costs and airfares contributing. BofA Securities economists expected September headline inflation to be higher than in August because of gasoline prices, while core inflation could moderate as tariff-related pressures eased. They also warned that rising airfares could push core inflation higher.
““Along the way, it has produced 124 record highs, more than double the average (~50) of the seven prior bull markets that lasted at least four years.””
— Larry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, as quoted by Kiplinger
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CPI and Results Are Still Pending
The September CPI figures had not been released at Monday’s close, so the actual headline and core inflation rates remain unknown. The forecasts cited by Kiplinger are expectations, not confirmed readings. It is also unclear whether any change in inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to alter its policy path; the report’s reference to a possible October rate increase reflects a conditional concern raised by BofA Securities economists, not a confirmed Fed decision.
Third-quarter earnings are also largely ahead. The 30% growth figure is a projection, and reported results may differ. Company commentary, including any discussion of demand, costs or AI-related business, could affect how investors interpret the numbers. Monday’s closing moves do not resolve those questions.
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Wednesday’s Inflation Report Leads
Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report Tuesday morning, beginning the week’s earnings calendar, according to Kiplinger. The main near-term economic event is the September Consumer Price Index report, scheduled for release Wednesday morning.
Investors will be watching the headline figure and core CPI, which excludes food and energy, for evidence about the direction of inflation. Earnings updates and company outlooks will follow through the season. Those releases may provide new information on price pressures and corporate performance, but their market impact will depend on the results and guidance as they emerge.
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Key Questions
How did the major U.S. stock indexes close Monday?
The Dow rose 0.4% to 51,850. The S&P 500 fell 0.06% to 7,807, and the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.4% to 27,245, according to Kiplinger.
When is the September CPI report due?
The September Consumer Price Index report is scheduled for Wednesday morning. The figures were not available at Monday’s close.
Which companies begin the earnings calendar this week?
Johnson & Johnson and JPMorgan Chase are scheduled to report Tuesday morning, Kiplinger reported.
Is 30% earnings growth a confirmed result?
No. The 30% year-over-year growth rate is a current projection cited by FactSet Senior Earnings Analyst John Butters. Reported third-quarter results may differ.
Source: rss
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